利用多元线性回归模型重构中国九大流域陆地水储量变化北大核心CSCD     

杨鑫春  游为  万祥禹  宋梦芝 《大地测量与地球动力学》2023,43(2):116-120

GRACE与GRACE-FO任务间的数据空缺导致无法连续监测陆地水储量变化。基于此,本文采用多元线性回归模型,以GRACE/GRACE-FO陆地水储量变化数据为参考值,以降水、气温和模型模拟的陆地水储量数据为预测参数,采用3种不同策略重构中国九大流域2002-04~2021-12连续的陆地水储量变化。结果表明,基于去趋势项和去季节项信号重构策略的重构结果略优于去趋势项信号重构策略,且两者结果均优于整体信号重构策略,在人类活动或冰川融化频繁的流域(如海滦河、长江、西南诸河和内陆河流域)这种优势更为明显。此外,重构结果的性能也受GRACE/GRACE-FO数据信噪比和预测参数与GRACE/GRCAE-FO数据的相关性影响。  相似文献   

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?          下载免费PDF全文

Beatriz Quesada‐Montano  Ida K. Westerberg  Diana Fuentes‐Andino  Hugo G. Hidalgo  Sven Halldin 《水文研究》2018,32(6):830-846

Long‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information—to locally observed discharge—can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%). Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an—assumed to be—ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.  相似文献   

Prediction of streamflow regimes over large geographical areas: interpolated flow–duration curves for the Danube region     

A. Castellarin  S. Persiano  A. Pugliese  A. Aloe  J. O. Skøien 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z1):845-861

ABSTRACT

Flow–duration curves (FDCs) are essential to support decisions on water resources management, and their regionalization is fundamental for the assessment of ungauged basins. In comparison with calibrated rainfall–runoff models, statistical methods provide data-driven estimates representing a useful benchmark. The objective of this work is the interpolation of FDCs from ~500 discharge gauging stations in the Danube. To this aim we use total negative deviation top-kriging (TNDTK), as multi-regression models are shown to be unsuitable for representing FDCs across all durations and sites. TNDTK shows a high accuracy for the entire Danube region, with overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values computed in a leave-p-out cross-validation scheme (p equal to one site, one-third and half of the sites), all above 0.88. A reliability measure based on kriging variance is attached to each interpolated FDC at ~4000 prediction nodes. The GIS layer of regionalized FDCs is made available for broader use in the region.  相似文献   

The influence of third order terms on basins of convergence in the Hénon–Heiles type system     

《New Astronomy》2022

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Local and regional constraints on relative sea-level changes in southern Isle of Skye,Scotland, since the Last Glacial Maximum     

Louise Best  Alexander R. Simms  Martin Brader  Jerry Lloyd  Juliet Sefton  Ian Shennan 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):59-70

New relative sea-level (RSL) data constrain the timing and magnitude of RSL changes in the southern Isle of Skye following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We identify a marine limit at ~23 m OD, indicating RSL ~20 m above present c. 15.1 ka. Isolation basin data, supported by terrestrial and marine limiting dates, record an RSL fall to 11.59 m above present by c. 14.2 ka. This RSL fall occurs across the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A, supporting recent research on the sources of ice melting. Our new data also help to resolve some of the chronological issues within the existing Isle of Skye RSL record and provide details of the sub-Arctic marine environment associated with the transition into Devensian Lateglacial climate at c. 14.5 k cal a bp , and the timing of changes in response to the Loch Lomond Stadial climate. Glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) model predictions of RSL deviate from the RSL constraints and reflect uncertainties in local and global ice models used within the GIA models. An empirical RSL curve provides a target for future research.  相似文献   

The Cwm Llwyd Outlier,Carmarthenshire, South‐West Wales – Britain's deepest karstic subsidence or Variscan pull‐apart structure?     

P. T. Walsh  W. J. Barclay  Y. Battiau‐Queney 《Geological Journal》2007,42(1):1-23

The Cwm Llwyd Outlier of Namurian Middle Shales in the central part of the Black Mountain escarpment of South Wales is an unusual structure. It occupies a topographic depression located more than 2 km from the main outcrop of the Middle Shales and has a stratigraphic discordance with its wall‐rocks of more than 300 m. Previous interpretations advocating a karstic origin imply that this is the deepest known subsidence in Great Britain. However, although the outlier lies among some of the finest epikarst landforms in the country, several factors indicate that the subsidence was not caused by a karstic mechanism. These include the amount of stratigraphic displacement in contrast to the depth of available vertical space in the putative host Carboniferous Limestone, the relatively simple form of the outlier, and the absence of brecciation, marginal solution residues and associated palaeoendokarst features in the adjacent wall‐rocks. The outlier is re‐interpreted here as the product of faulting which occurred during a Variscan strike‐slip or transpressive tectonic regime, producing local sinistral transtension that may have been re‐activated in the Palaeogene period. Remapping the outlier at a scale of 1:2 500 indicates that the present structure is related principally to a left‐stepping offset between the Cwm Llwyd and Llwyn Celyn faults. Analogies are drawn with the Cainozoic pull‐apart structures in Southwest England. Near‐surface reddening and kaolinization of the beds probably represent pre‐Pleistocene weathering. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献